| Attribute | Detail |
|---|---|
| Full address | 29 Bowman Drive, Penguin, Tasmania 7316 |
| Property type | Residential established — two-level contemporary dwelling |
| Bedrooms / bathrooms | 4 bed · 2 bath (main + ensuite); 3 toilets (powder room) |
| Car accommodation | 2 (double garage, internal access) — estimated |
| Land area | 881 m² (advertised; title search recommended to verify) |
| GFA (gross floor area) | ~327 m² (from the listing — not independently verified; see GFA sensitivity §5.3 and verification Appendix B) |
| Year built | [TBC] — appears circa 2021–2023 from listing & street context; confirm via Building Permit search with Central Coast Council |
| Title | [TBC] — Standard Freehold assumed; verify on Section 32 equivalent |
| Zoning | [TBC] — General Residential assumed; verify on PlanBuild Tasmania |
| Orientation / outlook | North-facing upper level; panoramic Bass Strait ocean views |
| Key features | Polished concrete (lower), open-plan upper living, master with WIR + ensuite, office alcove + powder room, second living, split-system A/C, ducted heating, deck & entertaining, fruit trees |
| Condition | Assumed near-new / good-to-excellent (estimated) — confirm via building & pest |
| Current listing | Upper guide: "Offers Over $1,295,000"; a second agency: $1,100,000 — two competing agency listings, materially different price points (see §5) |
The property appears to have been listed initially at ~$1,350,000 via the upper-guide listing agency (social-media evidence of a "$1.35M" open home on 14 June 2026), with a subsequent "PRICE ADJUSTMENT" post dropping the guide to "Offers Over $1,295,000". A concurrent second-agency listing shows $1,100,000. This dual-agency listing with a $195,000 gap between the two asking prices is a market signal. The buyer has been quoted $1,100,000 as the central question figure; the $1,295,000 upper guide is treated as the vendor's upper price ambition for context only — it is not supported by the evidence in this report.
Penguin is a coastal town of ~4,100 residents on Tasmania's North-West Coast, between Burnie (~18 km east) and Ulverstone (~13 km west), within the Central Coast Council area — known for its penguin colony, beaches, marine precinct and strong owner-occupier lifestyle appeal. 29 Bowman Drive sits in an elevated coastal subdivision with considerable new development over the past five to ten years; the street's topography gives direct north-facing views over Bass Strait — the primary premium driver in this precinct.
| Amenity | Approx. distance | Amenity | Approx. distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penguin town centre & beach | 1.2 km (est.) | Penguin sporting precinct | 0.5 km (est.) |
| Penguin Primary School | 0.9 km (est.) | Ulverstone Hospital | 15 km |
| Penguin District High School | 1.1 km (est.) | Burnie city centre | 18 km |
| Devonport (ferry terminal) | 45 km | Launceston Airport | ~2 hr drive |
All distances estimated from mapping tools. Verify if access to a specific amenity is a decision factor.
| Indicator (Penguin 7316) | Reading |
|---|---|
| Median house price | $658,000 (PropertyValue) – $681,426 (htag), mid-2026 |
| Subject vs median | ~62–67% above median at a $1.1M reference price |
| Annual price growth | 7.79% (12 mths) vs 4.30% national; 5-yr ~50.89% |
| Days on market | 59 days avg · vendor discount −3.91% |
| Stock / supply | 39 for sale · 1.4 months of supply (tight) |
| Rental market | $415–$458/wk median · gross yield ~3.17–3.6% · vacancy 0.69% |
At a $1.1M reference, the subject sits well above the suburb median. The analysis tests whether the property's attributes — size, views, quality, recent construction — can support that premium. A note of caution on growth: industry guidance warns against applying a single trailing annual rate to a multi-year time adjustment, because regional TAS had a strong 2020–22 cycle followed by a more subdued 2023–24. The §5 methodology reflects this.
North-West Tasmania recorded 23 sales above $1,000,000 in the June quarter 2025 alone (REIT NW Tas). Premium coastal pockets — Shearwater ($749,500 median), Turners Beach ($747,500), Sisters Beach ($730,000) — show lifestyle-coastal stock commands material premiums over the regional median. Within Penguin the $1M-plus market is thin but active: the strongest recent comparable on the same street — 21 Bowman Drive, sold $1,400,000 (private treaty, 13 May 2025, Domain confirmed) — shows the Bowman Drive precinct has at least one confirmed transaction above $1.1M in the past 14 months.
76 South Road (listed from $950,000 since December 2025, ~6+ months on market) is an unsold listing and is not treated as comparable evidence. Its failure to transact at $950,000 over six months is itself a signal that demand at the premium end of Penguin is not unlimited. Context only — not relied upon in the methodology.
No specific state or federal incentive applies to a repeat purchaser. First Home Owner Grant would not apply unless the buyer is a first-home buyer (confirm). Tasmanian stamp duty applies at standard rates. Confirm Home Guarantee Scheme eligibility with a mortgage broker if applicable.
Data sources. Pricefinder / RP Data not attempted (no paid backend). Free public stack used: REA, Domain (incl. the confirmed C1 settlement), the listing agencies, OldListings, PropertyValue, OnTheHouse, AllHomes, REIT NW Tas Q2 2025, Harrison Agents. The L/M/H range reflects a free-stack evidence base only — access to Pricefinder/CoreLogic would tighten it. Widen-for-uncertainty applied accordingly.
| # | Address | Config | GFA / land | Price | Date | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | 21 Bowman Drive, Penguin | 4/2 | [TBC] | $1,400,000 confirmed | May 2025 | Strongest — same street, same config, likely similar views. GFA unknown. Settlement confirmed via Domain (corrected from v1's "~$1.37M"). |
| C2 | 41 Bowman Drive, Penguin | 3/2 | 240 / 879 m² | $900,000 | Jul 2023 | Same street, 3-bed, 87 m² smaller, 35 mths old. Sold 16% below list. Floor reference; time adjustment material. |
| C3 | 109A South Road, Penguin | 4/2 | 228 m² | ~$850,000 | 2025 (mth?) | Nearby quality 4-bed; 99 m² smaller. Sale month unknown — time-adjustment uncertainty. |
| C4 | 191 Upper Maud St, W. Ulverstone | 4/2 | 286 / 1,679 m² | $1,145,000 | 2025 | Adjacent municipality, ocean views, MBA Award finalist 2024. Quality benchmark; location premium applied for Bowman Dr. |
C5 (76 South Road, listed $950,000, Dec 2025) removed from the table — an unsold listing for 6+ months is not comparable evidence (see §2.3).
Evidence at and above $1,100,000 in Penguin is thin. The only confirmed above-$1M sale on the same street is C1 at $1,400,000, but its GFA is unconfirmed. The next strongest (C2 at $900,000, Jul 2023) is 35 months old with a different configuration. The subject's estimated ~327 m² is large for Penguin; at C1's $1.4M the implied rate on the subject's GFA would be ~$4,281/m², but that can't be stress-tested without C1's actual GFA. A wider-than-usual spread (±15%) is warranted given the thin high-end base and the unverified GFA.
Market rent for a quality 4-bed in Penguin is estimated at $600–$700/wk (suburb median $415–$458 plus a premium-build, coastal-view uplift). Estimate only — no specific 4-bed coastal rental comparable found on the free stack. Cross-check purposes only.
The primary method compares the subject to sold properties, adjusting for time, size and configuration. The subject is treated as a 4-bed, 2-bath, 2-car, ~327 m² GFA (unverified), 881 m² land, near-new, north-facing coastal-view dwelling on Bowman Drive.
v1 applied a single 8.5% p.a. rate from the trailing 12-month figure. The critique correctly flagged that as methodologically fragile across a multi-year window. This report now applies 7.79% p.a. for short sub-periods (0–14 mths, 2025–26) and 5.5–6.5% p.a. (6.0% central) for longer sub-periods (14–36 mths, 2023–25), reflecting subdued 2023–24 growth.
| Comp | Basis | Adjusted value |
|---|---|---|
| C1 — 21 Bowman Dr | $1,400,000 confirmed × 1.0844 (13 mths) × 0.90 (GFA-uncertainty discount) | ~$1,370,000 (ceiling) |
| C2 — 41 Bowman Dr | $900,000 × 1.175 (6.0% p.a., 35 mths) × 1.08 (config/size) | ~$1,142,000 |
| C3 — 109A South Rd | $850,000 × 1.078 (mid-2025) × 1.18 (size) × 1.05 (view premium) | ~$1,135,000 |
| C4 — 191 Upper Maud St | $1,145,000 × 1.0779 (12 mths) × 1.03 (location premium) | ~$1,271,000 |
| Parameter | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| C2 / C3 conservative average | $1,111,000 | — | — |
| C2 + C3 + C4 mid average | — | $1,182,667 | — |
| C1 confirmed ceiling | — | — | $1,370,000 |
| Evidence-quality discount | −5% | −5% | 0% |
| Approach 1 indicated | $1,050,000 | $1,125,000 | $1,370,000 |
| Parameter | Conservative | Base | Optimistic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market rent / week | $580 | $640 | $700 |
| Annual gross rent | $30,160 | $33,280 | $36,400 |
| Applied gross yield | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.4% |
| Indicated value | $718,000 | $876,000 | $1,071,000 |
The yield cross-check produces a materially lower range — expected for premium coastal lifestyle property. Yield-driven investors (3.5–4.5% gross) are not the primary buyer at $1M-plus in Penguin; the buyer universe is owner-occupier dominated (families, sea-changers, retirees with capital), who routinely pay a premium for lifestyle, views and amenity. Approach 1 is treated as primary; Approach 2 (~$718k–$1,071k) is the investor-value floor.
The subject's ~327 m² GFA is unverified, and listings routinely overstate floor area by including the garage (~40–50 m²) and alfresco. The likely conditioned area may be 275–310 m². Implied rate per square metre at various GFA assumptions:
| Assumed GFA | @ $1.0M | @ $1.1M ask | @ $1.125M mid | @ $1.3M | C2 benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 275 m² | $3,636 | $4,000 | $4,091 | $4,727 | $3,750 |
| 290 m² | $3,448 | $3,793 | $3,879 | $4,483 | $3,750 |
| 310 m² | $3,226 | $3,548 | $3,629 | $4,194 | $3,750 |
| 327 m² (listing) | $3,058 | $3,364 | $3,440 | $3,977 | $3,750 |
| Low | Mid | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indicative range (AUD) | $960,000 | $1,125,000 | $1,370,000 |
| Scenario | Conservative C2/C3; GFA below 327 m²; thin evidence | Evidence-led avg of C2+C3+C4, corrected rates, −5% | C1 confirmed $1.4M time-adjusted, −10% GFA |
True fair-value band: applying GFA uncertainty to the Mid, the most likely fair-value band — if GFA verifies at 310 m² or above — is $1,050,000 – $1,150,000. If GFA verifies at or near 327 m², the top extends toward $1,125,000–$1,175,000.
| Offer level | Amount | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Opening position | $1,020,000 – $1,040,000 | Below evidence Low; tests vendor motivation while GFA & C1 GFA unverified |
| Acceptable range | $1,040,000 – $1,080,000 | Low to mid of the corrected range; reasonable value with DD conditions |
| Strong competitive offer | $1,100,000 | Slightly below the evidence Mid; fair if GFA verifies ≥310 m² and B&P is clean |
| Post-verification walk-away | $1,130,000 – $1,150,000 | Stretch only if GFA ≥310 m² confirmed, C1 GFA confirmed larger, and B&P clear. Replaces v1's unsupported $1,175,000. |
| Do NOT pay (unverified) | Above $1,150,000 | Not supported by current evidence |
Recommended opening offer: $1,040,000 subject to finance and building/pest inspection. Do not pay $1,295,000.
General information only — not a forecast, not investment advice.
| Entry price | 5% p.a. (5 yr) | 6% p.a. (5 yr) | 7% p.a. (5 yr) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,050,000 | $1,340,000 | $1,405,000 | $1,473,000 |
| $1,100,000 | $1,404,000 | $1,472,000 | $1,543,000 |
| $1,125,000 | $1,436,000 | $1,506,000 | $1,578,000 |
At ~6% p.a. (the implied 5-year compounded rate), the $1,295,000 upper guide becomes consistent with the forward value from a $1.05–1.1M entry in roughly 3–4 years (~2029–2030). That assumption is not guaranteed.
| Factor | Impact | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| North-facing ocean views | High | The single most significant premium driver here; confirmed C1 sale demonstrates the market recognises it. |
| Contemporary build quality | High | "Highly respected local builder"; near-new stock commands a premium over Penguin's median housing. |
| Floor area (~327 m²) | Mod (contingent) | If confirmed, generously large for Penguin. Materially reduced if conditioned area is 275–290 m². |
| Dual living / flexibility | Moderate | Lower level functions as a semi-independent zone — families, multigen, guest suite. |
| Motivated-seller signals | Moderate | Two price reductions ($1.35M → $1.295M → a second agency at $1.1M) suggest adjusted expectations; buyer leverage. |
| Tight supply (1.4 mths) | Moderate | Low stock relative to demand supports current price levels. |
| Ask below evidence Mid | Low–Mod | $1.1M is ~$25k below the evidence-led Mid — a marginal buyer-side advantage if DD is clean. |
| Factor | Impact | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| GFA not verified | High | 327 m² is off the listing and includes the garage. If conditioned area is 275–290 m², size-adjusted Mid falls to $1,050k–$1,080k. Confirm via building permit before committing. |
| Year built unknown | High | No confirmed construction year. Building & pest mandatory; request builder warranty docs. |
| Dual-agency $195k gap | High | $1.1M vs $1.295M on the same house. Clarify the sale mechanism with both agencies before any offer (Appendix B-E). |
| C1 GFA unknown | High | The only confirmed $1M+ street sale has unknown GFA. If C1 is larger, the subject's implied rate at $1.1M may exceed C1's. |
| Thin high-end comps | Moderate | Fewer than 3 confirmed $1M+ closed sales in 24 months on the free stack; High end rests on one data point. |
| Coastal hazard overlay | Moderate | Elevated position likely protects against inundation; erosion band may differ. LISTmap check required (Appendix B-C, free). An overlay could cut value $30k–$60k. |
| C3 sale month unknown | Moderate | ~$75k uncertainty on C3 from the unknown month alone. |
| Zoning / overlays (TBC) | Moderate | Any overlay beyond General Residential may restrict alterations/development. |
| Rental-yield compression | Low–Mod | Gross yield 2.7–3.2% at the Mid — below suburb average; relevant if ever rented. |
| Thin premium liquidity | Low–Mod | Resale at this point may take materially longer than the 59-day suburb average. |
| Title / encumbrances (TBC) | Low | No title search conducted; confirm easements/caveats with a conveyancer. |
For the purchaser to hand to their conveyancer, buyers agent or solicitor. Complete items A, B and C before making any offer. D, E and F can proceed in parallel.
Confirm 29 Bowman Drive's actual approved floor area — specifically conditioned living area, separate from garage/alfresco — via Central Coast Council (or PlanBuild Tasmania).
Confirm the GFA of the $1.4M C1 comparable via OldListings, Domain sold history, or the Council DA register. If C1 is larger than the subject, $1.1M is below C1 on a $/m² basis (positive).
At maps.thelist.tas.gov.au, enable "Coastal Erosion Hazard" and "Coastal Inundation Hazard" layers on the lot. "No overlay" is the best outcome.
Engage a QBIS-accredited inspector; request all builder-warranty documentation; confirm the builder and statutory defects-liability period.
Ask each agency separately: exclusive or conjunctional? Can the vendor accept independently of the other agency? Is the $1.1M lower guide fixed or negotiable? How long marketed, any prior offers? Do not disclose your maximum.
Title search via the Tasmanian Land Titles Office (through your conveyancer); zoning, overlays and open DAs via PlanBuild Tasmania.
This document is an indicative price opinion produced by an automated desktop process. It is not a valuation under the Land Valuers Act 2001 (Tas); no registered valuer has produced or signed it. It relies exclusively on publicly available information as at 19 June 2026. No physical inspection has been conducted. No investigation has been made into structural soundness, asbestos, contamination, or building-code compliance. Comparable evidence is from free public sources only. This assessment does not constitute financial product advice; it must not be relied upon for financing, statutory, legal or transactional purposes without further verification by qualified professionals.
This is the Negotiation Support tier ($349) — the full report plus a buyer offer strategy and a counter-position to the agent's price. Independent, no listing to win, no commission.
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